Well... No.
In this story on Reuters. Some people are claiming that scientific evidence (specifically carbon dating and molecular genetic analysis) has been used to prove that bones found in 2010 belonged to John the Baptist. He's the guy that supposedly dunked the head of Jesus under water (baptising him). Thus making him even more holy?
Anyway. They dated the bones to the first century CE (common era) which is when John the baptist would have died. And the genetic analysis concluded that the individual was most likely of middle eastern origin.
The first issue I have with this is one of how likely it is to be true based on probability and the evidence. One of the scientists is quoted as saying that it was 'obviously impossible to say with any certainty that the remains belonged to John the Baptist. But it could not be ruled out.' Yeah it cannot be ruled out in the same sense that you cannot rule out that there is an invisible, trans-dimensional dragon living in my apartment. You can't rule it out. But you have so little evidence for it and it is so incredibly unlikely. That for all practical purposes you consider it not true. The same is true with these bones. First, it is highly unlikely that the biblical John the Baptist existed at all. Secondly, there are thousands of individuals who were living at that time whose bones these could be. And thirdly, the evidence is so thin as to be almost non existent. So the evidence is too thin, and the probability so low, that for all practical purposes we can consider it to be false.
Then there is the issue of using science in an attempt to provide evidence. The two techniques used in this case are the same ones that provide evidence for the earth being more than 6000 years old (radio carbon dating), and that all species on the earth are related through the process of evolution (molecular genetic analysis). This is a wonderful example of how the religious mind subjectively screens and accepts information. On the one hand they want to deny that these two scientific disciplines are correct in the findings they make. That the earth is billions of years old and that evolution is a fact. Then on the other they want to use those same findings to support their claims when it suits them.
Now I'm not saying anyone involved in this particular case is a science denying young earth creationist. But think about this. If the analysis had shown that the bones were older than 2000 years. Do you think they would have immediately accepted the fact that they were not holy relics and announced this to the world? I don't think so. First because they would have lost all the income they are currently enjoying from pilgrims coming to visit the bones. And secondly they would be setting a dangerous (from the religious view point) president where scientific facts are valued over faith.
Sunday, June 17, 2012
Disappointed
I'm rather disappointed by the chiefs.
Not because of anything they have done on the field. Or because of any off field conduct of the players.
No, I am disappointed because they are sponsored buy fraudsters. EKEN Power Bands was one of their recent Match day sponsors and they list EKEN as one of their official sponsors on their official sponsors page. Shame.
I have written about EKEN power bands before here. And I wrote more generally about the magic bracelet scam here.
The original purveyors of this scam, Power Balance, went bust in Australia after they were forced to provide refunds to their customers. The ruling was made after it was found Power Balance made claims for their product that were obviously false and couldn't be supported with any evidence or testing. Claiming that the bracelets could boost strength, flexibility and balance. When in reality they were a dollars worth of silicone with a 5c hologram attached.
These products do not and cannot do any of the things the sellers claim. It's the modern day equivalent of snake oil. Or be it on the more harmless side as the only thing they are likely to take is your money and they probably won't cause any physical harm.
So why do I care. Because these people are making money selling a scam. Because it is a lack of critical thinking that allows people to be taken in by scams like this. Because I expect a professional sports franchise to exercise even a small amount of good judgement and critical thinking when accepting sponsors. And Because I just do.
Not because of anything they have done on the field. Or because of any off field conduct of the players.
No, I am disappointed because they are sponsored buy fraudsters. EKEN Power Bands was one of their recent Match day sponsors and they list EKEN as one of their official sponsors on their official sponsors page. Shame.
I have written about EKEN power bands before here. And I wrote more generally about the magic bracelet scam here.
The original purveyors of this scam, Power Balance, went bust in Australia after they were forced to provide refunds to their customers. The ruling was made after it was found Power Balance made claims for their product that were obviously false and couldn't be supported with any evidence or testing. Claiming that the bracelets could boost strength, flexibility and balance. When in reality they were a dollars worth of silicone with a 5c hologram attached.
These products do not and cannot do any of the things the sellers claim. It's the modern day equivalent of snake oil. Or be it on the more harmless side as the only thing they are likely to take is your money and they probably won't cause any physical harm.
So why do I care. Because these people are making money selling a scam. Because it is a lack of critical thinking that allows people to be taken in by scams like this. Because I expect a professional sports franchise to exercise even a small amount of good judgement and critical thinking when accepting sponsors. And Because I just do.
Bye Bye Voyager
The Voyager 1 space probe is leaving our solar system.
When it does. It will be the first human constructed space craft to travel out into interstellar space. Traversing the vast, unimaginably empty and massive, void between stars. Pretty kool.
Voyager was launched on September 5 1977, with it's mission being to study Jupiter and Saturn, then go on towards the outer solar system and out into interstellar space. And it's done a remarkable job. Returning some of the most iconic images of the gas giants and their moons and providing invaluable information about the two systems.
Now it is reaching a point in its journey where the flow of particles from outside our solar system seems to be getting the upper hand over the particles streaming out from the sun. You can imagine it like a river flowing into the sea. At the mouth of the river there is only the fresh water flowing out. But the further out into the sea you go the more the salt water takes over. Until, eventually all the you can detect is the ocean. Where the two flows meet and battle it out marks the Heliopause. Which is the edge of the Heliosphere (the bubble around our star that marks out its influence in space). Once Voyager passes through the Heliopause it will then be in installer space. Voyager 1 is is currently more than 17.8 billion kilometers from earth and moving at a (relative) speed of 17km/s. It takes 16 hours and 38 Minutes (on average) just for the data to get from the there to here.
It seems amazing to me that it is still functioning so well after all this time. The power source is expected to provide usable power up until 2025. So if the instruments keep functioning, we can expect to learn plenty of interesting things about the space environment beyond the influence of our sun.
O, and if you were wondering how long it will be before voyager 1 reaches another star. Well, roughly 73,600 years. I don't think I'll stick around for that.
When it does. It will be the first human constructed space craft to travel out into interstellar space. Traversing the vast, unimaginably empty and massive, void between stars. Pretty kool.
Voyager was launched on September 5 1977, with it's mission being to study Jupiter and Saturn, then go on towards the outer solar system and out into interstellar space. And it's done a remarkable job. Returning some of the most iconic images of the gas giants and their moons and providing invaluable information about the two systems.
Now it is reaching a point in its journey where the flow of particles from outside our solar system seems to be getting the upper hand over the particles streaming out from the sun. You can imagine it like a river flowing into the sea. At the mouth of the river there is only the fresh water flowing out. But the further out into the sea you go the more the salt water takes over. Until, eventually all the you can detect is the ocean. Where the two flows meet and battle it out marks the Heliopause. Which is the edge of the Heliosphere (the bubble around our star that marks out its influence in space). Once Voyager passes through the Heliopause it will then be in installer space. Voyager 1 is is currently more than 17.8 billion kilometers from earth and moving at a (relative) speed of 17km/s. It takes 16 hours and 38 Minutes (on average) just for the data to get from the there to here.
It seems amazing to me that it is still functioning so well after all this time. The power source is expected to provide usable power up until 2025. So if the instruments keep functioning, we can expect to learn plenty of interesting things about the space environment beyond the influence of our sun.
O, and if you were wondering how long it will be before voyager 1 reaches another star. Well, roughly 73,600 years. I don't think I'll stick around for that.
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Darcy Cowan and the IAS
First. Yes, it had been a very, very long time since my last post. But there is a very good reason for this.
I moved. And I started a new job.
Actually I started two new jobs. And I moved to a completely new city. So I have been a bit distracted. Life changes and all.
I may get into that later. Or maybe not. Any way. I want to mention Darcy Cowan on Sciblogs. He has filed a complaint against the IAS. YAY!
I have talked about the IAS before here. And I was reading their blogs and leaving comments for awhile. Until I was overwhelmed by their spectacular ability to deny reality. Darcy has made a complaint to the New Zealand Charities Commission in the hope of getting the IAS deregistered as a charity. This is a good move. Charitable status should be reserved for organisations that are doing good for the community. The IAS is certainly not doing good. They in fact cause harm. And due to the tax exceptions they enjoy as a charity, we the tax payers, are indirectly supporting their efforts!
That's nuts! Crazy! Batshit insane! How can an organisation that advances dangerous misinformation and bald face lies to the public be a charity. The IAS is a danger and should be ignored and shunned until they eventually wither and disappear under the crushing mass of the forces set against them. Reason, science and proper public education that will eventually render such organisations impotent and helpless. At least that's what I'd like to see happen.
Darcy is quite clear that he doesn't want the IAS shut down. Just that they not be allowed to mascaraed as a charity. And, well I agree. I also think that such dangerous people need to be opposed. They need to be shown up as the enemies of reason and public health that they are.
You can read Darcy's post on the complaint here.
Also details of the actual submission here, here, here and here.
It's good shit. Do read it.
It makes me happy that there are people in NZ with the drive, time and expertise to do things like this.
I moved. And I started a new job.
Actually I started two new jobs. And I moved to a completely new city. So I have been a bit distracted. Life changes and all.
I may get into that later. Or maybe not. Any way. I want to mention Darcy Cowan on Sciblogs. He has filed a complaint against the IAS. YAY!
I have talked about the IAS before here. And I was reading their blogs and leaving comments for awhile. Until I was overwhelmed by their spectacular ability to deny reality. Darcy has made a complaint to the New Zealand Charities Commission in the hope of getting the IAS deregistered as a charity. This is a good move. Charitable status should be reserved for organisations that are doing good for the community. The IAS is certainly not doing good. They in fact cause harm. And due to the tax exceptions they enjoy as a charity, we the tax payers, are indirectly supporting their efforts!
That's nuts! Crazy! Batshit insane! How can an organisation that advances dangerous misinformation and bald face lies to the public be a charity. The IAS is a danger and should be ignored and shunned until they eventually wither and disappear under the crushing mass of the forces set against them. Reason, science and proper public education that will eventually render such organisations impotent and helpless. At least that's what I'd like to see happen.
Darcy is quite clear that he doesn't want the IAS shut down. Just that they not be allowed to mascaraed as a charity. And, well I agree. I also think that such dangerous people need to be opposed. They need to be shown up as the enemies of reason and public health that they are.
You can read Darcy's post on the complaint here.
Also details of the actual submission here, here, here and here.
It's good shit. Do read it.
It makes me happy that there are people in NZ with the drive, time and expertise to do things like this.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Germany Exits on Nuclear Power
Germany's decided that they will shut down all their nuclear reactors by 2022. There are currently 17 nuclear power stations in operation in Germany and they will be progressively phased out over the next 11 years.
This is not a surprising decision, given the direction this issue has been going in Germany since the incident at Fukushima. But is it a bad choice, or a inspired vision? At first glance it would seem that Germany has simply fallen victim to unjustified fears and the agenda of environmentalists. However the issue of atomic energy production in Germany is actually more complex.
There has always been a strong environmental movement in Germany. And it seems there has been a more or less continuous opposition to nuclear reactors. Both of these movements have grown stronger in the last decade or so and it may just have been the case that Fukushima was the proverbial final straw. It does seem to be that a large section of German society is opposed to the continuation of nuclear power production. And that they have finally managed to make themselves heard.
It is not mine or anyone else's place to tell the Germans what they should or shouldn't do. But It would be nice if their decisions were based on the science and the evidence. And not on a knee jerk reaction or misguided ideology. I'm not saying that this latest development is either. But let's take a quick look at it.
The global media has certainly made a big deal of the incident at Fukushima. But it really doesn't warrant all the attention it's been getting. And it certainly isn't the striking blow against nuclear safety that many think it is. The Fukushima plant was old. It was not equipped with the same safety features that define more modern reactors. It was hit by a massive earthquake. Which it survived, intact and functioning. Then it was struck by a massive tsunami. This caused extensive damage and rendered some of the necessary backup systems non operational. After all this. There was no large scale release of radioactive material and no full meltdown. And perhaps most importantly. No one has yet died as a result of the incident.
For Germany, a country at little risk of earthquakes and tsunamis, to take Fukushima as a warning about reactor safety seems bizarre. If anything it shows how such incidents can be managed to mitigate the risks. And stands in start contrasts to incidents involving other forms of power generation in which many lives have been lost. Or the estimated tens of thousands that die every year due to the pollution released form fossil fuel power generation.
What will Germany use to replace the lost capacity. There will probably have to be some increase in their quantity of fossil fuel consumption. But it seems that they mostly plan to use renewable sources of power to cover the replacement. Can they do it?
The general consensus seems to be that the technology is not yet viable or cost effective to achieve such a goal. There would need to be a significant investment in things like solar, wind and hydro. And each of these has it's not inconsiderable problems to be overcome. Particularly hydro power with it's large environmental impact. And solar and wind power have the problem of not being able to generate on demand. But there is also the potential for Germany to get this right and become a world leader and pinup for sustainable energy. This is what German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks. And it is possible that they will succeed.
The bottom line: If Germany is able replace the lost generation capacity with sustainable and Eco friendly power it will be giant step forward. If they are unable to do it in a cost effective way. Or if they have to fall back on fossil fuels. It will be a giant step backwards.
This is not a surprising decision, given the direction this issue has been going in Germany since the incident at Fukushima. But is it a bad choice, or a inspired vision? At first glance it would seem that Germany has simply fallen victim to unjustified fears and the agenda of environmentalists. However the issue of atomic energy production in Germany is actually more complex.
There has always been a strong environmental movement in Germany. And it seems there has been a more or less continuous opposition to nuclear reactors. Both of these movements have grown stronger in the last decade or so and it may just have been the case that Fukushima was the proverbial final straw. It does seem to be that a large section of German society is opposed to the continuation of nuclear power production. And that they have finally managed to make themselves heard.
It is not mine or anyone else's place to tell the Germans what they should or shouldn't do. But It would be nice if their decisions were based on the science and the evidence. And not on a knee jerk reaction or misguided ideology. I'm not saying that this latest development is either. But let's take a quick look at it.
The global media has certainly made a big deal of the incident at Fukushima. But it really doesn't warrant all the attention it's been getting. And it certainly isn't the striking blow against nuclear safety that many think it is. The Fukushima plant was old. It was not equipped with the same safety features that define more modern reactors. It was hit by a massive earthquake. Which it survived, intact and functioning. Then it was struck by a massive tsunami. This caused extensive damage and rendered some of the necessary backup systems non operational. After all this. There was no large scale release of radioactive material and no full meltdown. And perhaps most importantly. No one has yet died as a result of the incident.
For Germany, a country at little risk of earthquakes and tsunamis, to take Fukushima as a warning about reactor safety seems bizarre. If anything it shows how such incidents can be managed to mitigate the risks. And stands in start contrasts to incidents involving other forms of power generation in which many lives have been lost. Or the estimated tens of thousands that die every year due to the pollution released form fossil fuel power generation.
What will Germany use to replace the lost capacity. There will probably have to be some increase in their quantity of fossil fuel consumption. But it seems that they mostly plan to use renewable sources of power to cover the replacement. Can they do it?
The general consensus seems to be that the technology is not yet viable or cost effective to achieve such a goal. There would need to be a significant investment in things like solar, wind and hydro. And each of these has it's not inconsiderable problems to be overcome. Particularly hydro power with it's large environmental impact. And solar and wind power have the problem of not being able to generate on demand. But there is also the potential for Germany to get this right and become a world leader and pinup for sustainable energy. This is what German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks. And it is possible that they will succeed.
The bottom line: If Germany is able replace the lost generation capacity with sustainable and Eco friendly power it will be giant step forward. If they are unable to do it in a cost effective way. Or if they have to fall back on fossil fuels. It will be a giant step backwards.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The End is Comming
Yet another prediction of the end of the world is due to pass this Saturday. This latest one is brought to us by Harold Camping. A bible thumping nut job from the USA. Camping owns the family radio network. A large non profit(?) that is reportedly worth around $100 million. And Camping has done this before. With at least one previous prediction of the end times failing to come true.
Should you be afraid? I don't think so. Many, Many people and groups have predicted the end before. The end of what? In the case of the religious types. It usually involves some form of judgement followed by death for the wicked and salvation for the devout. And there are some UFO cults that have similar salvation and/or judgement/death scenarios. There are also plenty of secular apocalyptic type events that have been predicted. Things like the collapse of the world economy due to any number of factors. Or being destroyed by a meteor, or other space related event.
Most such predictions are of course nonsense. We know this because the dates have come and gone and the world is still here. And while a catastrophic event like an impact from a giant space rock is all but inevitable I'm not particularly worried about it. (Interestingly, you are more likely to be killed by an asteroid impact in your life time than win the lottery or die from an act of terrorism). The chance that the world will end in some kind of supernatural rapture is as close to zero as it is possible to get. In fact I think the odds that the entire earth will suddenly stop spinning tomorrow are better.
Camping is basing his prediction on the bible of course. He's done some selective reading an interpretation along with a bit of math (adding two numbers). I won't put forth the details here (as I feel my pages may not be able to fully contain his stupid). I always find this sort of attempt to gain real information from ancient texts to be so laughably ridiculous. It's a wonder that these people expect to be taken seriously. But they are! Camping has thousands sucked into his delusion and there is a long history of such ideas taking hold and spreading.
And what do you suppose will happen when the world keeps on keeping on after Saturday? Well of course the excuses and rationalisations will flow. These will be no admission that they were wrong. Here are three of the often supplied excuses that they may use.
*The date was off. It's actually still coming.
*The prayers of the devoted changed the mind of god and he decided to cancel/postpone the rapture.
*The prophecy was actually fulfilled but not in the way anyone expected.
And so on and so forth.
I'm not really afraid that the world will end. On my scale of things I'm concerned about. I'm actually far more worried that one of my flatmates will illegally import a deadly snake and hide it in my bed as a joke. But then I don't see the snake and it bites me. And despite living just down the road from the Hospital. They won't be able to save me because there are no snakes in NZ so they have no anti venom. And I die a horrible and painful death.
And I'm not really very worried about that at all.
Should you be afraid? I don't think so. Many, Many people and groups have predicted the end before. The end of what? In the case of the religious types. It usually involves some form of judgement followed by death for the wicked and salvation for the devout. And there are some UFO cults that have similar salvation and/or judgement/death scenarios. There are also plenty of secular apocalyptic type events that have been predicted. Things like the collapse of the world economy due to any number of factors. Or being destroyed by a meteor, or other space related event.
Most such predictions are of course nonsense. We know this because the dates have come and gone and the world is still here. And while a catastrophic event like an impact from a giant space rock is all but inevitable I'm not particularly worried about it. (Interestingly, you are more likely to be killed by an asteroid impact in your life time than win the lottery or die from an act of terrorism). The chance that the world will end in some kind of supernatural rapture is as close to zero as it is possible to get. In fact I think the odds that the entire earth will suddenly stop spinning tomorrow are better.
Camping is basing his prediction on the bible of course. He's done some selective reading an interpretation along with a bit of math (adding two numbers). I won't put forth the details here (as I feel my pages may not be able to fully contain his stupid). I always find this sort of attempt to gain real information from ancient texts to be so laughably ridiculous. It's a wonder that these people expect to be taken seriously. But they are! Camping has thousands sucked into his delusion and there is a long history of such ideas taking hold and spreading.
And what do you suppose will happen when the world keeps on keeping on after Saturday? Well of course the excuses and rationalisations will flow. These will be no admission that they were wrong. Here are three of the often supplied excuses that they may use.
*The date was off. It's actually still coming.
*The prayers of the devoted changed the mind of god and he decided to cancel/postpone the rapture.
*The prophecy was actually fulfilled but not in the way anyone expected.
And so on and so forth.
I'm not really afraid that the world will end. On my scale of things I'm concerned about. I'm actually far more worried that one of my flatmates will illegally import a deadly snake and hide it in my bed as a joke. But then I don't see the snake and it bites me. And despite living just down the road from the Hospital. They won't be able to save me because there are no snakes in NZ so they have no anti venom. And I die a horrible and painful death.
And I'm not really very worried about that at all.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Money Trouble at SETI
SETI has been forced to temporarily (I hope) shut down it's Allan Telescope Array in California due to a lack of funds. This makes me sad.
There have always been people who have argued against funding for SETI. They think it is too expensive, and is never likely to provide us with significant returns. Some people criticize the program as not being real science. They say no matter how long we look. We will never be able to make a conclusive statement about the existence of other technological civilisations.
I think that both these points are true. SETI may never give us any real return on our investment. And it may never reach an end point where they can say we are alone. And yet I still feel strongly that SETI is worth doing. And worth funding. Why?
I find it incredibly hard to believe that we live on the only planet capable of supporting life. And I find it difficult to believe that life will not arise where conditions are right. I also find it equally difficult to believe that we are the only intelligent species to emerge in our galaxy. Everywhere we look on our own plant we find life. And I think that it's likely that we will find life on other bodies in our solar system. Like on Europa. It's my bet that life will exist wherever it is possible for life to exist. And that intelligent societies will develop wherever it is possible for that development to take place. If these things are true. It could mean our galaxy is populated with hundreds of intelligent forms of life.
It might be that it isn't true. Maybe life is extremely rare. Maybe the development of technological civilisations is rare. Maybe technological civilisations have a habit of destroying themselves rather quickly once they arise. All these things are unknowns. But SETI has the potential to at least shine a tiny light into the vast darkness of our ignorance and maybe answer one critical question. Are we alone?
In my mind. The potential answer to that one question is worth all the money and all the effort of a program like SETI. The search for that answer may be the greatest pursuit Humanity ever engages in. And even though we may never find an answer. If we did. The consequences are far beyond my imagination. I'll let the great Carl Sagan have the last word.
There have always been people who have argued against funding for SETI. They think it is too expensive, and is never likely to provide us with significant returns. Some people criticize the program as not being real science. They say no matter how long we look. We will never be able to make a conclusive statement about the existence of other technological civilisations.
I think that both these points are true. SETI may never give us any real return on our investment. And it may never reach an end point where they can say we are alone. And yet I still feel strongly that SETI is worth doing. And worth funding. Why?
I find it incredibly hard to believe that we live on the only planet capable of supporting life. And I find it difficult to believe that life will not arise where conditions are right. I also find it equally difficult to believe that we are the only intelligent species to emerge in our galaxy. Everywhere we look on our own plant we find life. And I think that it's likely that we will find life on other bodies in our solar system. Like on Europa. It's my bet that life will exist wherever it is possible for life to exist. And that intelligent societies will develop wherever it is possible for that development to take place. If these things are true. It could mean our galaxy is populated with hundreds of intelligent forms of life.
It might be that it isn't true. Maybe life is extremely rare. Maybe the development of technological civilisations is rare. Maybe technological civilisations have a habit of destroying themselves rather quickly once they arise. All these things are unknowns. But SETI has the potential to at least shine a tiny light into the vast darkness of our ignorance and maybe answer one critical question. Are we alone?
In my mind. The potential answer to that one question is worth all the money and all the effort of a program like SETI. The search for that answer may be the greatest pursuit Humanity ever engages in. And even though we may never find an answer. If we did. The consequences are far beyond my imagination. I'll let the great Carl Sagan have the last word.
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