Germany's decided that they will shut down all their nuclear reactors by 2022. There are currently 17 nuclear power stations in operation in Germany and they will be progressively phased out over the next 11 years.
This is not a surprising decision, given the direction this issue has been going in Germany since the incident at Fukushima. But is it a bad choice, or a inspired vision? At first glance it would seem that Germany has simply fallen victim to unjustified fears and the agenda of environmentalists. However the issue of atomic energy production in Germany is actually more complex.
There has always been a strong environmental movement in Germany. And it seems there has been a more or less continuous opposition to nuclear reactors. Both of these movements have grown stronger in the last decade or so and it may just have been the case that Fukushima was the proverbial final straw. It does seem to be that a large section of German society is opposed to the continuation of nuclear power production. And that they have finally managed to make themselves heard.
It is not mine or anyone else's place to tell the Germans what they should or shouldn't do. But It would be nice if their decisions were based on the science and the evidence. And not on a knee jerk reaction or misguided ideology. I'm not saying that this latest development is either. But let's take a quick look at it.
The global media has certainly made a big deal of the incident at Fukushima. But it really doesn't warrant all the attention it's been getting. And it certainly isn't the striking blow against nuclear safety that many think it is. The Fukushima plant was old. It was not equipped with the same safety features that define more modern reactors. It was hit by a massive earthquake. Which it survived, intact and functioning. Then it was struck by a massive tsunami. This caused extensive damage and rendered some of the necessary backup systems non operational. After all this. There was no large scale release of radioactive material and no full meltdown. And perhaps most importantly. No one has yet died as a result of the incident.
For Germany, a country at little risk of earthquakes and tsunamis, to take Fukushima as a warning about reactor safety seems bizarre. If anything it shows how such incidents can be managed to mitigate the risks. And stands in start contrasts to incidents involving other forms of power generation in which many lives have been lost. Or the estimated tens of thousands that die every year due to the pollution released form fossil fuel power generation.
What will Germany use to replace the lost capacity. There will probably have to be some increase in their quantity of fossil fuel consumption. But it seems that they mostly plan to use renewable sources of power to cover the replacement. Can they do it?
The general consensus seems to be that the technology is not yet viable or cost effective to achieve such a goal. There would need to be a significant investment in things like solar, wind and hydro. And each of these has it's not inconsiderable problems to be overcome. Particularly hydro power with it's large environmental impact. And solar and wind power have the problem of not being able to generate on demand. But there is also the potential for Germany to get this right and become a world leader and pinup for sustainable energy. This is what German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks. And it is possible that they will succeed.
The bottom line: If Germany is able replace the lost generation capacity with sustainable and Eco friendly power it will be giant step forward. If they are unable to do it in a cost effective way. Or if they have to fall back on fossil fuels. It will be a giant step backwards.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
The End is Comming
Yet another prediction of the end of the world is due to pass this Saturday. This latest one is brought to us by Harold Camping. A bible thumping nut job from the USA. Camping owns the family radio network. A large non profit(?) that is reportedly worth around $100 million. And Camping has done this before. With at least one previous prediction of the end times failing to come true.
Should you be afraid? I don't think so. Many, Many people and groups have predicted the end before. The end of what? In the case of the religious types. It usually involves some form of judgement followed by death for the wicked and salvation for the devout. And there are some UFO cults that have similar salvation and/or judgement/death scenarios. There are also plenty of secular apocalyptic type events that have been predicted. Things like the collapse of the world economy due to any number of factors. Or being destroyed by a meteor, or other space related event.
Most such predictions are of course nonsense. We know this because the dates have come and gone and the world is still here. And while a catastrophic event like an impact from a giant space rock is all but inevitable I'm not particularly worried about it. (Interestingly, you are more likely to be killed by an asteroid impact in your life time than win the lottery or die from an act of terrorism). The chance that the world will end in some kind of supernatural rapture is as close to zero as it is possible to get. In fact I think the odds that the entire earth will suddenly stop spinning tomorrow are better.
Camping is basing his prediction on the bible of course. He's done some selective reading an interpretation along with a bit of math (adding two numbers). I won't put forth the details here (as I feel my pages may not be able to fully contain his stupid). I always find this sort of attempt to gain real information from ancient texts to be so laughably ridiculous. It's a wonder that these people expect to be taken seriously. But they are! Camping has thousands sucked into his delusion and there is a long history of such ideas taking hold and spreading.
And what do you suppose will happen when the world keeps on keeping on after Saturday? Well of course the excuses and rationalisations will flow. These will be no admission that they were wrong. Here are three of the often supplied excuses that they may use.
*The date was off. It's actually still coming.
*The prayers of the devoted changed the mind of god and he decided to cancel/postpone the rapture.
*The prophecy was actually fulfilled but not in the way anyone expected.
And so on and so forth.
I'm not really afraid that the world will end. On my scale of things I'm concerned about. I'm actually far more worried that one of my flatmates will illegally import a deadly snake and hide it in my bed as a joke. But then I don't see the snake and it bites me. And despite living just down the road from the Hospital. They won't be able to save me because there are no snakes in NZ so they have no anti venom. And I die a horrible and painful death.
And I'm not really very worried about that at all.
Should you be afraid? I don't think so. Many, Many people and groups have predicted the end before. The end of what? In the case of the religious types. It usually involves some form of judgement followed by death for the wicked and salvation for the devout. And there are some UFO cults that have similar salvation and/or judgement/death scenarios. There are also plenty of secular apocalyptic type events that have been predicted. Things like the collapse of the world economy due to any number of factors. Or being destroyed by a meteor, or other space related event.
Most such predictions are of course nonsense. We know this because the dates have come and gone and the world is still here. And while a catastrophic event like an impact from a giant space rock is all but inevitable I'm not particularly worried about it. (Interestingly, you are more likely to be killed by an asteroid impact in your life time than win the lottery or die from an act of terrorism). The chance that the world will end in some kind of supernatural rapture is as close to zero as it is possible to get. In fact I think the odds that the entire earth will suddenly stop spinning tomorrow are better.
Camping is basing his prediction on the bible of course. He's done some selective reading an interpretation along with a bit of math (adding two numbers). I won't put forth the details here (as I feel my pages may not be able to fully contain his stupid). I always find this sort of attempt to gain real information from ancient texts to be so laughably ridiculous. It's a wonder that these people expect to be taken seriously. But they are! Camping has thousands sucked into his delusion and there is a long history of such ideas taking hold and spreading.
And what do you suppose will happen when the world keeps on keeping on after Saturday? Well of course the excuses and rationalisations will flow. These will be no admission that they were wrong. Here are three of the often supplied excuses that they may use.
*The date was off. It's actually still coming.
*The prayers of the devoted changed the mind of god and he decided to cancel/postpone the rapture.
*The prophecy was actually fulfilled but not in the way anyone expected.
And so on and so forth.
I'm not really afraid that the world will end. On my scale of things I'm concerned about. I'm actually far more worried that one of my flatmates will illegally import a deadly snake and hide it in my bed as a joke. But then I don't see the snake and it bites me. And despite living just down the road from the Hospital. They won't be able to save me because there are no snakes in NZ so they have no anti venom. And I die a horrible and painful death.
And I'm not really very worried about that at all.
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