Germany's decided that they will shut down all their nuclear reactors by 2022. There are currently 17 nuclear power stations in operation in Germany and they will be progressively phased out over the next 11 years.
This is not a surprising decision, given the direction this issue has been going in Germany since the incident at Fukushima. But is it a bad choice, or a inspired vision? At first glance it would seem that Germany has simply fallen victim to unjustified fears and the agenda of environmentalists. However the issue of atomic energy production in Germany is actually more complex.
There has always been a strong environmental movement in Germany. And it seems there has been a more or less continuous opposition to nuclear reactors. Both of these movements have grown stronger in the last decade or so and it may just have been the case that Fukushima was the proverbial final straw. It does seem to be that a large section of German society is opposed to the continuation of nuclear power production. And that they have finally managed to make themselves heard.
It is not mine or anyone else's place to tell the Germans what they should or shouldn't do. But It would be nice if their decisions were based on the science and the evidence. And not on a knee jerk reaction or misguided ideology. I'm not saying that this latest development is either. But let's take a quick look at it.
The global media has certainly made a big deal of the incident at Fukushima. But it really doesn't warrant all the attention it's been getting. And it certainly isn't the striking blow against nuclear safety that many think it is. The Fukushima plant was old. It was not equipped with the same safety features that define more modern reactors. It was hit by a massive earthquake. Which it survived, intact and functioning. Then it was struck by a massive tsunami. This caused extensive damage and rendered some of the necessary backup systems non operational. After all this. There was no large scale release of radioactive material and no full meltdown. And perhaps most importantly. No one has yet died as a result of the incident.
For Germany, a country at little risk of earthquakes and tsunamis, to take Fukushima as a warning about reactor safety seems bizarre. If anything it shows how such incidents can be managed to mitigate the risks. And stands in start contrasts to incidents involving other forms of power generation in which many lives have been lost. Or the estimated tens of thousands that die every year due to the pollution released form fossil fuel power generation.
What will Germany use to replace the lost capacity. There will probably have to be some increase in their quantity of fossil fuel consumption. But it seems that they mostly plan to use renewable sources of power to cover the replacement. Can they do it?
The general consensus seems to be that the technology is not yet viable or cost effective to achieve such a goal. There would need to be a significant investment in things like solar, wind and hydro. And each of these has it's not inconsiderable problems to be overcome. Particularly hydro power with it's large environmental impact. And solar and wind power have the problem of not being able to generate on demand. But there is also the potential for Germany to get this right and become a world leader and pinup for sustainable energy. This is what German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks. And it is possible that they will succeed.
The bottom line: If Germany is able replace the lost generation capacity with sustainable and Eco friendly power it will be giant step forward. If they are unable to do it in a cost effective way. Or if they have to fall back on fossil fuels. It will be a giant step backwards.
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