Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Not written in the stars.

Astrology is bunk. I think that most people know this already and just accept the crappy horoscopes printed in the paper for what they are. That is a few lines of nonsense that may distract you for all of a few seconds. But there really are some people who take this nonsense seriously. And there are people that make money off selling this fraud to these poor suckers.

I'm not going to go too deep into the total rubbish that is astrology here. Because frankly there is so much to deal with that it would take me all day. And I'm a busy man you know. 

So here are just a few bits on Astrology. The astrology I'm referring to here (There are many, many different types) is the idea that the position of the planets in relation to the earth, sun and stars as seen from the earth, can some how have an influence on things in our lives. They can apparently affect everything from your personality to your romantic life and even your work place success.

Any way. Before the discovery of Neptune. Astrologers didn't use it in their predictions. Now surely if there was anything to their system that even approached reality. Their observations and predictions should have been off. Astronomers were aware that Neptune should be there because they could see it's gravitational influence on other planets. Low and behold. Neptune was discovered by science! The Astrologers of course quickly made excuses and added Neptune into their made up charts.

Round two. Mercury was a tricky devil. It didn't seem to be behaving its self according to the laws of Newtonian mechanics. Astronomers thought that there must be another planet there to account for the strange behavior. The mysterious planet was given the name Vulcan. The Astrologers did not want to look foolish this time. So they began to incorporate Vulcan into their worthless system and confidently declared that any day now the astronomers would find Vulcan. Wrong! The planet Vulcan does not exist. The misbehavior of  Mercury was due to it's proximity to the sun. It orbits so close that the equations of Newtonian mechanics were not adequate to explain it's motion. General Relativity was needed.      

Those aside. Astrology just plain doesn't work. They cannot make a single specific prediction that has any relationship to reality. If your thinking about paying an astrologer for a reading. Buy a magic 8 ball instead. They are way more accurate and so much more fun.   

Monday, August 30, 2010

On Vaccination.

The Immunisation Awareness Society is New Zealand's very own, home grown anti-vaccination organization. They play all the usual cards of the anti-vax crowd. They say things like;
"The Immunisation Awareness Society Incorporated (IAS) is a voluntary, non-profit organisation dedicated to promoting informed choice." 
The IAS "...aims to maintain up-to-date international information on vaccines, and the perceptions and positions of medical professionals on vaccination."
"IAS does not advise people not to vaccinate but facilitates an informed decision making process. The decision about whether or not to vaccinate is a personal one that should be made after much research and consideration. IAS provides support to people who choose not to vaccinate, people who sometimes come under considerable pressure from health professionals, and often members of the community, to vaccinate their children."
"The majority of IAS members have made an informed decision not to vaccinate themselves or their children*. This difficult decision is generally made after considerable research and much soul searching. It is a decision that is not made in isolation but is part of a broader philosophy which sees IAS members taking responsibility for their health and the health of their children."

I mean it all sounds rather good doesn't it? These are a reasonable group of people who evaluate the evidence and make an informed choice about the health of their children. Right?
Wrong.

The information provided by the IAS on their website is out of date, incorrect and in some cases just lies.

Here are some of the claims put forward in support of not vaccinating. Are they true?
Let's have a look at the evidence.

The claim:
Thiomersal in childhood vaccines contains mercury that is causing autism.  

The evidence:
Thiomersal was used in childhood vaccines up until 1997 when the American FDA ordered it removed as a precaution. Since 2002 there has been no childhood vaccines containing thiomersal. Yet since this time autism rates have continued to rise. There is no connection between thiomersal and autism.
Thoimersal contains ethyl mercury. Ethyl mercury is naturally expelled by the body and cannot build up to toxic levels. Methyl mercury is not easily expelled by the body and can build up and cause toxicity. But thiomersal contains ethyl mercury, not methyl mercury.

The claim:
The vaccinations given to children expose them to hundreds of times the safe levels of mercury.

The evidence:
There is more mercury in a delicious tuna sandwich than there is in all the vaccinations containing thiomersal. Tho this point is mute since childhood vaccines no longer contain thiomersal. Mmmmm Tuna.

The claim:
Properly supported, natural immunity is always superior to artificial immunity.

The evidence:
This is bunk for two reasons. "Natural" immunity in this case is not based on any understanding of how the human immune system works. The immune system is basically an attack and response system. When in senses an attack by a foreign organism. It responds by attacking it. there is not other way to train an immune system to fight a particular invasion than for it to be exposed.
The concept of "artificial immunity" stems from the same lack of understanding. A vaccine works by introducing some element (a protein, dead organism or weakened organism) of the pathogen into the body in order to train the immune system to recognize the threat and deal to it. This is exactly the same way that immunity is conferred naturally. Only in the case of a vaccine. There is a very small, or zero, chance of getting sick and dieing.

The IAS promotes the use of Naturopathic and Homeopathic remedies in order to treat and prevent illness. They claim this is safer and more effective than "artificial immunity". These kinds of statements give an insight into the behind the scenes workings of the group mind. Any person that would trust magic to protect and help their children rather than scientifically proven medicine has made some serious errors in thinking. The tendency to turn to so called complementary and alternative medicine. Is usually associated with a distrust of the medical profession. I could find no definitive evidence of this on the IAS site other than comments left by visitors. But I would be willing to bet that more than a few of the IAS members subscribe to this kind of thinking.      

To Conclude.

Parents who choose not to vaccinate their children endanger the lives not just of those children, but many others as well. An unvaccinated child can be a carrier of a deadly infection. The child in some cases may not even become ill. But they could pass that infection on to another. A baby that is too young to be vaccinated or an elderly person who is immuno compromised and unable to fight off the attack.
Some people, for various reasons, simply cannot be vaccinated. These few are relying on the rest of the population for protection. When vaccination rates in a population fall below certain levels. Herd immunity is lost and out breaks become possible. No medical intervention can ever be proven to be 100% safe. A very few people will have a bad reaction to a vaccine. And vaccines are not 100% effective. But they have saved hundreds of millions of lives. And haven't been linked to a single case of autism. Death by a vaccine preventable cause is a tragedy. And the blame lies on those who would promote nonsense and fear.

Saturday, August 28, 2010

My that's alot of rocks.



I got this off Phil Plate's excellent blog Bad Astronomy.

It shows the asteroids that have been discovered over the last thirty years or so. There sure are a lot of them. Science is so awesome!  

Rock in Space

So NASA has launched a contest to pick the songs that will be played to the astronauts on the last two shuttle missions. Kool.

Apparently. The playing of wake up music for the astronauts goes back all the way to the Apollo missions. The music helps with camaraderie and a connection to home according to a few former spacemen.

If you want to vote. You can go here and choose from the list. The songs must be songs that have been played on previous flights. Shame. I can think of a few really good tunes that aren't on this list.     

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Magic Bracelet Power?

There is a particular type of nonsense that has made a few in roads into the culture recently.
It's the powerbalance bracelet.

These useless pieces of junk seem be rather popular. They seem to benefit greatly from testimonials by sports stars and celebrities. And as far as I can tell. This seems to be the only thing they have going for them in terms of their advertising.

So how do they work and what do they do?

Well. According to their website. "Power Balance is based on the idea of optimizing the body’s natural energy flow, similar to concepts behind many Eastern philosophies. The hologram in Power Balance is designed to resonate with and respond to the natural energy field of the body."
"Power Balance is Performance Technology designed to work with your body’s natural energy field. Founded by athletes, Power Balance is a favorite among elite athletes for whom balance, strength and flexibility are important."

Do I really need to point out that this is pure nonsense?

They never bother to specify what this "hologram" they mention is. A hologram is an image. It's nothing more than that. The idea that an image can do anything to have a physical effect on your body is absurd. When this idea gets mixed with the claim that the body has some form of energy field that can be altered and manipulated...
This kind of viatalistic energy medicine crops up again and again in quack medicine. Therapeutic touch is perhaps the most prominent example. This kind of thinking is indeed based upon ancient "Eastern philosophies". The thing about such notions are that these philosophies of healing were developed in pre-scientific times when almost nothing true or useful was known about the Human body.

In my last blog I touched on the notion of logical fallacies. These are failures in logic that make the conclusion of the argument suspect. One such logical fallacy is the argument from antiquity. This usually goes as such. Some thing was used by some ancient culture. Therefore they must have had some special knowledge that we don't and thus this special thing is true.

This is obviously not a sound line of reasoning. Ancient cultures were certainly far less advanced in medical knowledge than western, science based, medicine is today.

The entire basis of this product is just complete and utter rubbish. I'm going to end this with a firm debunking of the type of demonstrations that are usually offered up as proof of effectiveness for these crap products.

This is done by Richard Saunders of the Australian Skeptics.       



In conclusion these bracelets and pendants are a scam. And not a cheap one. Any time a product makes claims about improving balance, strength, flexibility, stamina, concentration, circulation, wellness ect through the manipulation of some kind of energy field or similar. Be skeptical.   

Monday, August 23, 2010

Oh Yeah!

Today I'm going to talk about arguing.
What is an argument first of all? An argument is an attempt to reach and understand the truth. Arguments are not amenable to subjects that require one or more value judgments. By the very nature of an argument, it can only ever be applied to facts. For example. Two people can argue over the health benefits of being a vegetarian. But eating a vegetarian diet is a value judgment and therefore not amenable to argument.

An argument consists of three parts. The premise or premises. The logic that links the premises together and to the conclusion. And the conclusion itself.

An argument can fail either because the premises are false, or because the logic fails to link the premises to the conclusion.

An example of an argument with a bad premise and faulty logic:
P: Autism rates are on the rise.
P: Vaccination rates have been increasing.
C: Therefore, Vaccination causes Autism.

The faulty premise is that Autism rates are on the rise. There is no clear evidence that the true incidence of Autism is rising. The rise is more likely a result of the expanded definition of the disorder and an increasing surveillance.
The faulty logic here comes in the form of confusing correlation with causation. Just because a follows b. That does not mean that a caused b. Just because the "rise in Autism" follows the vaccinations. This Does not mean that the vaccinations causes Autism.

When an argument is constructed with true premises and correct logic. The conclusion of that argument is always true.

The most common error in argument is using bad logic. For a good list of common logical fallacies see here.

        

Saturday, August 21, 2010

What Does it Matter?

Scientist at the Tevatron Particle Accelerator at Fermi lab. Seem to have made a step in the direction to explaining how our universe came to be filled with stuff.

Why is this a problem? I mean isn't it obvious that there is stuff in the universe?
Well yes and no. While it is obvious that the universe contains matter. It isn't exactly clear why this should be.

After the big bang there would have been equal amounts of matter and antimatter in the early universe. This leads to a problem because when matter and antimatter come in to contact they annihilate. So why then is there lots of matter in the universe instead of nothing?

To attempt to answer this question. The team at Fermi lab smashed a few protons and antiprotons together and took a look at the results. What they saw was that there was a slight bias in the products of the collisions towards matter. About 1% actually, of matter over antimatter. This result still has to be reproduced and confirmed. But if it's true it has some neat implications.

First of all. The excess of matter was about 50% greater than that predicted by the standard model. If this result is correct. The standard model will have to be revised.

Secondly. This means that everything we see and everything that makes up the matter in the universe is just the tiny leftover remains of the big bang. This small piece of knowledge never ceases to blow my mind. Our entire universe, in all it's unimaginable size. Is but a small, consequential result of a minor asymmetry in a reaction that occurred more than 13 billion years ago. Humbling.

This is yet another example of why it is awesome to not know things in science. It provides the opportunity for investigation and discovery. Science is the light that shines out in a dark room to understand and discover how and why our universe is the way it is.  

Friday, August 20, 2010

What's a Skeptic

So I've been unable to blog for the past few days due to my telco (they shall remain nameless, [cough] Telecom, excuse me) dropping my internet service. But we're back up and running now and hopefully there will be no further interruptions.

Right then. Today I want to blog about just what is Skepticism and what does it mean to me.

Let's start by saying what Skepticism is not. Skepticism is not Cynicism, denial, arrogance or closed mindedness.

Skepticism is a method for approaching things with a view to evaluating the best available evidence on the subject and reaching a supported conclusion. When a claim is made. The good Skeptic will think. That's interesting. I wonder if that's supported by any evidence? Is it consistent with what we know about the world and how it works? The mind set of the skeptic can be best summarized as thinking critically. Approach everything with a critical mind set and reject those things that cannot be proven to a reasonable standard.

What does being a Skeptic and engaging in skeptical activism offer? The skill set that Skeptics employ is useful all the time. There are far too many people that are willing to take advantage of someones lack of critical thinking skills to rip them off with cons, scams, and do nothing products and services. Taking a skeptical approach to these things can save a lot of time, effort and money. Skeptical activism seeks to educate the public about people that will pray on the ignorance and gullibility of others. Skeptics seek to teach others the critical thinking skills that they require in order to sort out the truth from all the bs.

It's far more satisfying to have a world view that is firmly grounded in reality. It's also better for your wallet and your health.       

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Killer Nano Surfaces

Researchers at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Have fused the enzyme, lysostaphin with carbon nanotubes in order to create a surface that kills MRSA bacteria on contact. This naturally occurring enzyme is used by non-pathogenic strains of Staph bacteria to fight off the MRSA.

O nano tech. Is there anything you can't do? This is a stunning proof of concept advance. In the tests they mixed the technology in with house paint to create a surface that is safe to handle, non-toxic, doesn't leech traces into the environment, maintains its effectiveness over time despite wear and cleaning and kills greater than 99% of MRSA bacteria 20 minutes after contact!

This is so kool I have a hard time believing it.

The potential applications of such technology are many and awesome. Sterile, non-toxic surfaces and equipment for hospitals and the food industry are the immediate and obvious ones that come to mind.

I am looking forward to many more fantastic advances in the field of nano tech. In coming decades I think there will be few aspects of our lives that won't be influenced by this emerging technological wonder.          

Monday, August 16, 2010

The Dark Ages Return

The problem with democracy is that everyone gets a say. What we need is a strong dictator to rule us with absolute power.

Watch this. It. Is. Amazing




Did you see that?

I'm just not even sure where to start. Or if I need to say anything at all really. But I will. Just a few small points.

At 1:05. The "authentic common good"? As decided by who? the bible. So plenty of random killing, mutilation, incest, rape, misogyny and general mayhem then?  

At 1:20. The sexual activities of consenting adults is no ones business but there own.  

At 3:55. Ummm. the dark ages.

I could say more. But I think that this video stands by itself as a monument to the kind of hateful and destructive thinking that can be associated by the Christen right.

Climate Denial

So a bunch of Climate Change Deniers are taking NIWA to court over the accuracy of the data that has been used to assess climate change.

What?

This isn't a hoax. It's actually happening. This is not how you do science. If the Climate Science Coalition has real data and evidence. Let them produce it. They should gather their evidence. Come up with an interpretation. Make some climate models and publish a scientific paper. O wait. That's been done already.

You see, that way science works is that scientists gather data, do experiments, formulate theories and models that explain the data, then they they test them. A paper is then published and the rest of the scientific community takes a look and debates and argues and checks the data and reproduces the experiments. If the ideas and theories survive this process they then become part of our body of knowledge.
This thing we call science. It works. It works unbelievably well!

This has been done to death with global climate change. And the Scientific consensus is that the earth is warming and that we Humans are probably responsible.

What is happening here is that the climate deniers have put their ideology before the science. Instead of looking at the data and then forming a conclusion. They form their conclusion first, and then they look at the data and try to make it fit their preconceived notions. When science, objective reasoning and critical thinking play second to ideology, things will go astray.

These Deniers have been referred to as Climate Skeptics. No. They are not. A Skeptic looks at the evidence before he/she decides what the truth is. A Denier will hold a position in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. The Climate Science Coalition are Climate Change Deniers.      

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Get it up

If you ever have your radio dial tuned into The Rock. You may have noticed an ad for a product called Herbal Ignite. It claims to be a supplement that treats erectile dysfunction.

Fine. There is such a thing as erectile dysfunction and it is certainly plausible that such a problem can be treated with drugs.

O wait.
Did I say drugs?
Because one of the selling points of this treatment according to the ad is that it's not a drug. In fact. It's a natural, herbal product.  
Whenever you hear any pill, supplement, remedy ect. refereed to as "herbal" or "natural" or some equivalent. Be skeptical.
Lets take a closer look.

What's in Herbal ignite?
Well according to the website. The active ingredients are Tribulus terrestris and Horny Goat Weed (not kidding).
Tribulus terrestris is a a flowering plant found in many parts of the world. Evidence for the claimed benefits of this plant is weak at best. But lets just accept that it could have some beneficial effect with regards to male sexual performance.
Horny Goat Weed is properly named Epimedium. This is the Genus name for a range of flowering plants found mostly in Asia. The name comes from the legend that it was discovered by a goat farmer. He apparently noticed increased sexual activity in his herd after they had eaten the plant. Ok. Maybe that's true. We shall assume it is for now. The active ingredient in Epimedium is icariin. This has been shown to have similar effects to sildenafil, the active ingredient in Viagra, in inhibiting the activity of PDE-5. So yeah. It is certainly possible that it could help with erectile dysfunction.

How is it not a drug?
It is a Drug! The active ingredients have definite pharmacokinetic effects in the body.

This is where I have a problem with this product and the way it is marketed and sold. When dealing with drugs being introduced into your body. It's important that as much as possible is know about the effects they have. Just saying something is herbal and/or natural doesn't mean it's not potentially harmful.

You know what else is natural? Arsenic.

Drugs are heavily tested and put through trials before they are introduced for general use. And Doctors are highly trained to know what effects these drugs have on the body. They take into account all sorts of things like patient history and current medications the patient may be taking.

Bottom line. If it has an effect. It's got to be doing something.  And if it's unstudied and uncontrolled, there is no telling what effects it may be having other than those desired.

If it's advertised as herbal, natural, not a drug. Be skeptical. 

Saturday, August 14, 2010

First and foremost.

So.. First post. This is me.

This is my first attempt at published writing of any kind so I expect it may take me awhile to get the hang of it and settle on my style and what not.

I intend for this blog to basically be about general science news and skeptical issues that take my interest or that I think are important. Particularly when they relate to here in New Zealand.
That is what I mostly intend. Tho as it's my blog I may just rant about anything I want.

As I said. This is my first attempt at anything like this so I imagine it will just evolve and change as I go along.

So then.

Issue the first.

http://www.simillimum.co.nz/

I walked past this place the other day. It's a homeopathic pharmacy!

Pharmacy has two definitions
1. The art of preparing and dispensing drugs.
2. A place where drugs are sold.


Homeopathy is water. There is nothing else in a homeopathic "remedy" other than water. This is fact. One that homeopaths cannot deny. Since when is water a drug? If you claim to be preparing and dispensing drugs then don't you have to sell something that isn't water?

Here is the problem with so called complementary and alternative medicine (CAM). I'm sure I shall return to this point over and over again. So it seems appropriate that I get it out here in my first entry.
Are you ready. Because it's profound.

When treatments work. Doctors use them. That's called medicine. When treatments don't have any evidence that they work. Or they are in fact harmful. Doctors don't use them.

Not only is there a mountain of evidence that Homeopathy does not work.
It's impossible.
It's just water.